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The chances of Kristi Noem ceasing to be the Secretary of Homeland Security by March 31, 2026 have gone from 14% to as high as high as 32% in recent days, nearly double, at the online prediction market Polymarket.
Noem has come under fire for her handling of yet another shooting by a United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent.
Noem initially asserted that “This individual showed up to impede a law enforcement operation and assaulted our officers. They responded according to their training and took action to defend the officer’s life and those of the public around him.”
Starkly different versions of Saturday's shooting were coming from federal authorities and state officials. By Sunday, various videos taken at the scene seemed to show that Noem's original assessment of the incident did not support what actually occurred.

"Which side do you want to be on?" Gov. Tim Walz asked the public. "The side of an all-powerful federal government that could kill, injure, menace and kidnap its citizens off the streets, or on the side of a nurse at the VA hospital who died bearing witness to such government?" — a reference to Saturday's shooting of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis.
Greg Bovino, the public face of the crackdown, again blamed the shooting on Pretti.
"When someone makes the choice to come into an active law enforcement scene, interfere, obstruct, delay or assault law enforcement officer and — and they bring a weapon to do that. That is a choice that that individual made," he told reporters.
But US President Donald Trump appeared to take a different stance Monday morning, releasing a statement Monday morning.
The president said he had a "very good" call from Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, where he says the two appear to be on a "similar wavelength".
"I told Governor Walz that I would have Tom Homan call him, and that what we are looking for are any and all Criminals that they have in their possession," Trump writes on social media.
Trump added that Walz was receptive to this and "was happy that Tom Homan was going to Minnesota".
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com Political Correspondent