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The Fighting Illini have made the Final Four. Gamblers in the Land of Lincoln might not otherwise care if it weren't for offshore sports betting sites, prediction markets, daily fantasy sports (DFS) options and even local Illinois bookies.
Betting on any of the Illinois schools - The University of Illinois included - is strictly prohibited with the state-regulated apps.
Despite being one of the very first states to legalize sports wagering after the United States Supreme Court overturned Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992 (PASPA), Illinois hasn't always been entirely accommodating.
The first year of regulation - minus some limited Covid exceptions - customers were required to register at retail casinos. Remote registration ultimately kicked in.
This past year, the state imposed an aggressive tax hike on operators that was ultimately passed down to consumers in the form of fees.
The tax rate went from 15% to a graduated tax scale from 20% up to 40%, one of the highest in the nation.
State regulated companies impacted included:
- FanDuel Sportsbook
- DraftKings Sportsbook
- BetMGM
- Caesars Sportsbook
- Fanatics Sportsbook
- bet365
- BetRivers Sportsbook
- ESPN BET
- Circa Sports
- Hard Rock Bet
The fees, while small, tend to add up over time, especially at FanDuel and DraftKings. Those two companies impose a 50 cent fee per bet.
- Caesars Sportsbook – about $0.25 per wager
- Fanatics Sportsbook – about $0.25 per wager
- bet365 – about $0.25, but only on bets under $10
These books avoided the fee but raised minimum bet sizes instead:
- BetMGM – ~$2.50 minimum bet
- BetRivers – ~$1 minimum
- ESPN BET – ~$1 minimum
- Hard Rock Bet – ~$2 minimum
- Circa Sports – ~$10 minimum
Enter Prediction Markets
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket offer only YES and NO trades on games. These "will a team win" options are similar to moneyline bets at a traditional sportsbook. Prediction markets do not offer a spread/handicap on games nor do they allow trading on individual player performance.
These platforms have exploded in popularity. Kalshi reported over $194,379,241 in trading volume on the Arizona vs. Michigan Sunday Elite Eight game alone. Those numbers are staggering. But they also explain why state regulators, who we noted above just raised taxes, are now embroiled in legal battles with the likes of Kalshi.
Illinois has sent out cease and desist letters to both Kalshi and Robinhood.
Proposed legislation in the state would require a $1 million license fee with lawmakers looking to tax these companies at ~50%.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood are licensed federally by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and it certainly helps that the current administration of President Donald Trump embraces the sector.
Fighting Illini an Underdog vs. Duke, a Favorite vs. UConn
The Fighting Illini are an early +3.5 underdog should Duke make the Final Four but are a -1.5 favorite if UConn does so. The Blue Devils vs. Huskies game had yet to be decided as this story was going to press.
Illinois is heading to the Final Four for the first time in 21 years, and Andrej Stojakovic made clear the Fighting Illini have much bigger goals.
“I don’t want anybody to think this is it,” he said. “We didn’t get to the Final Four just to get there. We’re coming to win two more games.”
Freshman Keaton Wagler scored 25 points and Illinois ended Iowa's underdog March Madness run by dominating in the frontcourt, beating the Hawkeyes 71-59 on Saturday to end a Final Four drought that dated to 2005.
“It’s better than I dreamt it would ever be,” coach Brad Underwood said. “Thirty-nine years in the business and that’s all I’m going to say about my side of this. This is about these guys.”
This will be the sixth trip to the Final Four for Illinois, which has never won a national title. The Illini will face either Duke or UConn next weekend in Indianapolis.
“This is what kids dream of,” said Wagler, who was named the South Region's Most Outstanding Player. “I know I dreamed of this when I was growing up, playing in the Final Four, competing for a national championship. To be able to do it with the people around me, teammates, coaches, fans, managers, everyone, it means a lot ... but we’re not done yet.”
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
