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The betting markets have spoken and Péter Magyar appears well on his way to becoming the next prime minister of Hungary. 85% of those trading at Polymarket had him winning the election with nearly $13 million in trades while Viktor Orbán had seen closer to $14 million in trading volume but was given only a 14% chance of winning Sunday. Nearly $70 million had been traded on this election thus far since the candidates were announced. Others were running but no longer play a factor.
Hungarians were casting ballots Sunday in what is widely seen as Europe’s most consequential election this year, a vote that could unseat populist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, after 16 years in power.
It’s a key moment for Orbán, the European Union’s longest-serving leader and one of its biggest antagonists, who has traveled a long road from his early days as a liberal, anti-Soviet firebrand to the Russia-friendly nationalist admired today by the global far-right.
Orbán supporters are already gearing up for a confrontation once the results come in, with experts warning the outcome could be challenged in court no matter who wins.
Voting happens throughout the day and typically ends around 7:00 PM local time or 1 PM EDT.
This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
