Odds to Qualify for the 2025-2026 CFP Tournament: Notre Dame Priced at -400

Written by :

C Costigan

Published on :

30 November, 2025

We'll probably have it all figured out by next Saturday afternoon, and for sure next Tuesday evening, but below is which teams the number crunchers think will advance to the 12-team CFP tournament.

BetOnline.ag is assuming these nine teams get in no matter what happens next weekend:

Ohio State

Indiana

Georgia

Oregon

Texas Tech

Texas A&M

Alabama

Ole Miss

Oklahoma

And based on the odds below, Notre Dame, Virginia and North Texas will join them.

Interesting to see that the Texas Longhorns are nowhere to be found.

You can look at a few of the below projections and see that the numbers mostly mirror what the moneylines are for the respective championship game.

For example, North Texas is -135 against Tulane (+115), and the thought is that the Sun Belt winner gets in to the tournament. Interesting note here...both teams lost their coaches and North Texas is the only road favorite of championship week.

Of course, Duke is only a 2.5-point underdog to Virginia in the ACC, but 25/1 to reach the playoff. The thought there is that the CFP committee will rank the Sun Belt champ or James Madison higher than a five-loss Duke squad.

See BetOnline for updated odds here

Odds to Qualify for CFP Tournament

Notre Dame -400

Virginia -150

North Texas −150

Tulane +125

James Madison +130

BYU +375

Miami +600

Duke +2500

UNLV +5000

Here are the conference championship moneylines that have CFP implications: