Big Beautiful Bill to Pass By July 2 According to Betting Markets

The so-called Big Beautiful Bill is set to pass in congress by July 2.  That's according to the gambling markets. 

There is 70% backing this will happen. 

Possible changes to President Donald Trump’s big bill of tax breaks and spending cuts are being considered in what’s called a vote-a-rama, though most of the amendments are expected to fail.

After a weekend of setbacks, the Senate is rushing Monday to move ahead with the bill despite a series of challenges.

The hours ahead will be pivotal for the Republicans, who have control of Congress and are racing against Trump’s self-imposed July 4 deadline. The 940-page “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” as it is now formally titled, has consumed Congress as its shared priority with the president, with no room politically to fail, even as not all Republicans are on board.

Trump aims to sign the bill by July 4, and the odds certainly suggest that will occur. 

BetOnline.ag has placed the chances of the BBB passing before the Fourth of July at -300, or 1/3. That number equates to a 75% implied probability, which is on par with other betting markets. 

Senators were prepared to hunker down all through the night Monday if need be. 

“It’s time to vote,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota, as the chamber opened. But later he suggested final action could slip.

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York said the “hardest choices” for Republicans are still to come. Democrats, he said, are bringing “amendment after amendment after amendment to the floor, so Republicans can defend their billionaire tax cuts and so they can try to explain their massive cuts to Medicaid to people back home.”

The day will be pivotal for the Republicans, who have control of Congress and are racing against Trump’s July Fourth deadline to wrap up work. The 940-page “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” as it’s formally titled, has consumed Congress as its shared priority with the president, with no room politically to fail, even as not all Republicans are on board.