Obama had Bigger Advantage in Pennsylvania at Prediction Markets

In Pennsylvania, Obama's 45 percent to 42 percent advantage is within the 3.5 percent margin of error, according to the Poughkeepsie, New York, based institution. At online prediction market, Sportsbook.com, which just happens to be the largest US facing online sports book in terms of overall customer volume, Obama and the Democrats are -300 favorites to win the state. Typically, when the underdog wins against a -300 line, that's considered a major upset. It should also be noted that Sportsbook.com still listed John McCain with 6 to 1 odds of becoming the Republican Presidential candidate at a time when all other online bookmakers had already written him off.

Sportsbook.com is offering betting on key Election battle ground states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio to name a few. The company is basing its line on the bets coming in from each of those states.

Ohio is listed with -170 odds in favor of the Republicans. In Ohio, which decided the 2004 election, the polls have this race deadlocked at 44 percent each.

Virginia is a -190 favorite for the Republicans.

The Democrats have New Hampshire as -200 favorites and are even more substantial favorites to win Michigan at -260.

This is the first Marist poll of these states during this general election, according to Bloomberg News.

Obama increased his lead over McCain in Pennsylvania when Marist included the results of likely voters. His margin went from 3 percentage points to 5 percentage points, 49 percent to 44 percent. In Ohio he has a lead of 47 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, which isn't statistically significant. And in Michigan his lead remained 9 percentage points among likely voters, 52 percent to 43 percent.

The polls of 766 registered voters in Pennsylvania and 769 in Ohio were conducted Sept. 11-15, and the results of all the polls have a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. The Michigan poll was conducted Sept. 16-17 among 806 registered voters.

Sportsbook.com was offering 5 percent of losses back during the month of September, but the promo did not appear to be targeting political betting events.

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Jagajeet Chiba, Gambling911.com