Obama Might Win Arizona: Race Neck And Neck

In a stunning development, the Arizona Republic has reported that recent polls show Democratic US Presidential candidate, Barack Obama, is running neck and neck with Republican candidate, John McCain, in the state of Arizona.

Arizona has traditionally voted Republican, but even more significant is the fact that John McCain is Arizona's Senator.

Sen. John McCain's once-comfortable lead in Arizona has all but evaporated, that paper reports.  In fact, Obama had a two point lead in the cited Arizona State University poll. 

For those of us here at Gambling911.com, this doesn't necessarily come as a surprise.   The online gambling community had worked hard to get McCain's Republican colleague, Jon Kyl, out of office and nearly succeeded two years ago.  While the Internet gambling sector is not engaging in similar activities regarding the McCain campaign, the Democratic party has been inundating our email boxes with news related to their efforts at getting Obama elected and they appear to be making inroads.

"This is a coordinated effort and the Democratic party in Arizona seems much more organized than in 2006," stated Gambling911.com Senior Editor, Payton O'Brien, who has been monitoring the political betting scene.  Obama was last listed as a -800 or better favorite to become the next US President (see Presidential betting odds including odds on number of states each party will win at Sportsbook.com).

Kyl was a co-author of online gambling prohibition legislation.  McCain is viewed as having a more friendly stance towards gaming interests and is supported by some in the i-gaming sector and there are no cohesive efforts to discourage gamblers from voting for McCain. 

Efforts are, however, currently underway to have Democratic Governor, Chris Gregoire, unseated for her role in making betting on the Internet illegal in Washington State.  Like in Arizona, a win by the other party would be a stunning upset as Washington State traditionally votes Democrat.   And just like in Arizona, the race is now nearly even.  A handful of online gambling sites will be email blasting thousands of Washington State residents over the weekend as a reminder of Gregoire's prohibitive law.

In the end, McCain is expected to win Arizona but by the narrowest of margins.

"One would think McCain would still carry Arizona, but anybody who says they can predict the state this time, they can't. It's going to depend on who goes to the polls," said Tara Blanc, associate director of the poll, which was done by ASU's Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication and local PBS affiliate Channel 8 (KAET).

The poll of about 1,000 registered voters indicated about 9 percent are undecided, giving campaigns few people to convince in the next six days.

Working in McCain's favor, the state has 1.1 million registered Republicans, about 96,000 more than Democrats. 

In Obama's favor, the state has about 824,000 independent voters who support Obama over McCain 60 percent to 40 percent, according to the poll.