UFC 143 Fight Odds: Condit vs. Diaz

Carrie Stroup here with the latest UFC 143 fight odds with the marquee bout Condit vs. Diaz.  Get updated lines as well as Super Bowl 46 prop bets at Sportsbook.com.  Receive up to $250 in FREE CASH based on initial deposit.  Mention me, Carrie Stroup.

Nick Diaz (27-7-1) vs. Carlos Condit (27-5-0)

Sportsbook.com Line: Diaz -225, Condit +175

With an injured Georges St-Pierre unable to defend his title, an interim welterweight belt will be on the line when Nick Diaz and Carlos Condit have at it, headlining the UFC 143 fight card on Saturday night in Las Vegas.

Both fighters come into this bout with long strings of success. Diaz has won 11 consecutive fights, including a stretch of dominance over the Strikeforce welterweight title, which he vacated when he returned to UFC in his most recent bout. He prevailed there, with a unanimous decision victory over the talented BJ Penn. Condit has won in four straight fights, all for UFC, and 12 of his past 13 bouts. Diaz is a strong Jiu-Jitsu artist whose striking skills are among the best in the sport, making him difficult to beat in a stand-up fight. But, he still incorporates submissions and takedowns into his repertoire, something that can be dangerous for Condit who only avoids 45% of total takedowns. Condit will aim to keep as much of this fight on the ground as possible, and almost exclusively wins by submission or knockout; he has won 13 fights each of those ways, with only one career win in a decision.

Diaz’s boxing and Jiu-Jitsu background has been nearly unstoppable as of late. His return to UFC in his last bout was important because it showed that he belongs with the best and was not just beating up on weaker Strikeforce foes. With 54% of his attacks coming as strikes, he is intimidating when on his feet. He may be more successful though, if he is able to take Condit to the floor. Condit has a low takedown avoidance rate, something that a top notch fighter like Diaz should have no problem exploiting. The 6-foot southpaw is favored in this fight, but should still be the play because of his more advanced skillset.

Condit lost his first UFC fight, a split decision against Martin Kampmann, but has won four in a row since then. His last three have all been knockout victories, the two most recent of which earned knockout of the night honors over Dan Hardy and Dong Hyun Kim.

Josh Koscheck (18-5-0) vs. Mike Pierce (13-4-0)

Sportsbook.com Line: Koscheck -250, Pierce +190

The interim welterweight title is on the line headlining the UFC 143 card, but Josh Koscheck and Mike Pierce also take the Octagon for a highly-anticipated welterweight bout.

Koscheck enters this fight one removed from his loss to Georges St-Pierre for the welterweight crown. In his only bout since then, he knocked out Matt Hughes in the first round. Pierce is also coming off a loss then a win over Paul Bradley in November, both split decisions. Additionally, Koscheck and Pierce are very similar fighters. They are both wrestlers who rely on takedowns to control the pace of fights. Koscheck (53% takedowns) has a two-inch height advantage over Pierce (60% takedowns) and has fought better fighters in his career. But, Pierce has displayed top-notch defense in his career that should guide him to victory in this fight. He has successfully avoided 77% of takedowns in his career, while Koscheck has avoided just 56%.

Koscheck was a collegiate wrestler who has ridden his takedown skills to victories in four of his past five fights. Two of those wins have come as knockouts, one as a submission and one as a unanimous decision. He is not a bad striker, however, with skills in kickboxing and Jiu-Jitsu as well. He fights about half the time standing and half on the ground, and even though he struggles to defend takedowns, his 65% strike avoidance rate is solid for the competition he has faced. At the extremely short odds, however, play against Koscheck.

Pierce was also a collegiate wrestler before entering MMA and has also won four of his past five fights. His ground-and-pound strategy has given him six wins via knockout in his career, with six more from decisions and just one submission. Seven of his career bouts have come as a part of UFC, in which he has gone 5-2. He has displayed his stamina in those fights, as all but one of them was decided in the third round.       

Roy Nelson (17-6-0) vs. Fabricio Werdum (14-5-1)

Sportsbook.com Line: Werdum -145, Nelson +115

An important heavyweight fight is on the UFC 143 main card with Roy Nelson and Fabricio Werdum heading into the Octagon on Saturday night.

Both of these fighters have had mixed results recently, but have done so fighting against the top competition in their class. Nelson is coming off a third-round TKO of Mirko Cro Cop, but lost his two prior fights to Frank Mir and Junior dos Santos. Werdum is coming off a decision loss to former Strikeforce belt holder Alistair Overeem, but won three consecutive fights before that. The most recent of those was a major upset in which he registered a quick first-round submission of the legendary Fedor Emelianenko. Ultimately for Werdum though, the skillsets favor Nelson who at 263 pounds has a 24-pound weight advantage. Nelson will want to fight this standing up, and should be able to use his grappling skills to finish off Werdum, who has only avoided 1-of-4 takedowns in his career. Werdum is too inconsistent to be even a slight favorite in this event.

Nelson is a black-belt in Jiu-Jitsu and is among the most experienced in the sport. With a KO over Brendan Schaub, he won the Ultimate Fighter Heavyweight tournament in 2009. His past seven wins have all come by knockout, as the majority of his attacks come as strikes. While his attack is certainly strike-heavy, his grappling controls the pace of play against his opponents. This tends to work in his favor, as he is extremely dense for his 6-foot frame.

Werdum, unlike Nelson, depends much more on his ground game. Similar to his opponent, however, he is trained in Jiu-Jitsu but also employs Muay Thai and Judo tactics. Werdum balances his attacks fairly evenly between submissions, strikes and takedowns, making his opponents bring a varied defense pedigree to a fight. He has proven he can hang with the best by beating fighters like Emelianenko, but failed to follow that up well with the loss to Overeem.

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter