Our -2.5 and Under Trend on the Line Monday Night: The Power of the 3
If you've been following what we like to deem the "3 Point/2.5 Point and Under" NFL betting trend, you'll see it's been winning every week to the tune of what is now a 21-4 record. This Sunday we went 1-1. Thanks Tom Brady for coming through in the final seconds to carry us over what would otherwise have been a 0-2 result following Arizona's loss to Seattle.
Monday night's game featuring the Baltimore Ravens in New Orleans factors into this trend and will decide if it goes 2-1 or 1-2 for Week 8. The MNF game had Baltimore a -2.5 and -3 point favorite prior to Thursday. Since that time, the line has trended towards the -1.
Components of this trend involve a line that stays under the 3 but must at some point during the week touch on the 2.5. Games that feature a line of 2 or under do not fit in the equation. This trend is purely based on the pivotal number 3 and its immense power in football, more reliably the NFL. That 21-4 record is winning for the favorites. Hence the reason why we are liking Baltimore, even at the early number of -2.5.
There is some additional caution. We realize there are a ton of sportsbooks out there. Gambling911.com hones in on only a handful of "competent" oddsmakers.
Likewise, even some of these books will offer a line that surges in the closing hours. With this in mind, we do not take into consideration the Sunday morning line.
Here's an example from DraftKings, one of the books we do indeed monitor at the moment.
Sun, Nov 6 4:30 PM ET (ET)
+4.5 -115
-4.5 -115
Sun, Nov 6 4:25 PM ET (ET)
+3.0 -105
-3.0 -115
Sun, Nov 6 4:20 PM ET (ET)
+3.0 -110
-3.0 -110
Sun, Nov 6 3:15 PM ET (ET)
+3.0 -120
-3.0 +100
Sun, Nov 6 12:40 PM ET (ET)
+2.5 +100
-2.5 -120
Sun, Nov 6 11:40 AM ET (ET)
+3.0 -120
-3.0 +100
Wed, Nov 2 2:00 PM ET (ET)
+3.0 -115
-3.0 -105
Wed, Nov 2 1:55 PM ET (ET)
+2.5 -105
-2.5 -115
The line was clearly on Tampa -2.5 and -3 throughout the week. We did not take into account that sudden last minute move to -4.5.
This same concept applies to the opening line and those numbers posted preseason.
In the case of the Monday Night Football game between the Ravens and Saints, there were some brief 3.5's available.
And while the overall trend has been great, do consider the overlays and underlays when looking to bet specific games.
The Seahawks-Cardinals game featured a 1.5 to 3 point underlay. To date, sampled college football games (we don't analyze all game lines) that featured a line of 3 that touch on either the 2.5 or 3.5 or both and were underlays had gone 15-2 for the favorite. That would still have been a lean on Arizona. In reality, oddsmakers and the Sagarin Ratings are yet to catch up to Seattle's success this season.
Another consideration is the last minute injury updates.
In college football we have a trend that has performed well with a relatively low sampling to date. Underlays for those games that have a line of 3 and touch on the 2.5 without going over 3 were 7-0 coming into Week 9. This past weekend, Kansas became the first dog in our sampling to cover, but this occurred primarily as a result of Oklahoma State losing its star quarterback to injury after the initial line had been posted.
Below, BetUS host TJ Rives, and expert handicappers Chris Farley and Scott Kellen analyze Monday night's game and may offer plays that vary from what we discuss above as they are considering the game based on talent levels and other favorable trends.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
