How Much Will Liz Cheney Pay Out If She Wins Her Primary?

What the results of the Georgia GOP gubernatorial primary tell us is that going against former US President Donald Trump is no longer committing political suicide for those in his party.  In fact, incumbent Governor Brian Kemp won in a landslide versus Trump's hand-picked candidate, David Perdue.

More importantly perhaps than the Kemp victory, current Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger defeated congressman Jody Hice on Tuesday.  If there was anyone Trump despised more than Kemp in Georgia politics it was Raffensperger.

In a surprise, Raffensperger even avoided a runoff and won an outright victory over Hice, receiving more than 50% of the vote.  Hice was the favorite to win coming into Tuesday's primary.

Hice’s campaign was built around his denial of the 2020 election results whereas Raffensperger rejected efforts to change the election results.

“The big lie in all of this is that there were no problems in this last election. This last election was filled with problems,” Hice said during a debate in Atlanta earlier this month. “Election security must be protected and Brad Raffensperger let that ball majorly fall.”

If there is anyone Trump hates more than Kemp and Raffensperger, it's Wyoming Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney.  She faces a primary challenger after directly blaming Trump for a January 6, 2021 attack on the United States Capitol.  Cheney voted to impeach the former President and is the vice chair of the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack.

More importantly for gamblers, Cheney pays out $30 for every $10 bet to be re-elected.  The Raffensperger win in particular tells us there is value in this price.

It is important to note that the Wyoming Republican primary is open to all voters regardless of party affiliation unlike some states that have closed primaries.  Contrary to popular belief, there are Democrats in the state of Wyoming.  That number is about 20% but Cheney has gained some solid support among Democrats and is expected to sail to victory in the general election assuming she gets passed the GOP primary.  She's also amassing a war chest from political donations, having raised a record $3 million for her reelection.

But her vitriol of Trump certainly stands out.  Kemp and Raffensperger mostly avoided mention of the former US President.

Cheney mentions him every chance she gets and issued this statement ahead of her decision to impeach Trump:

“On January 6, 2021 a violent mob attacked the United States Capitol to obstruct the process of our democracy and stop the counting of presidential electoral votes. This insurrection caused injury, death and destruction in the most sacred space in our Republic.

“Much more will become clear in coming days and weeks, but what we know now is enough. The President of the United States summoned this mob, assembled the mob, and lit the flame of this attack. Everything that followed was his doing. None of this would have happened without the President. The President could have immediately and forcefully intervened to stop the violence. He did not. There has never been a greater betrayal by a President of the United States of his office and his oath to the Constitution.

“I will vote to impeach the President.”

There is an argument to be had that the -500 price on Cheney not being re-elected makes some degree of sense.  Trump won by the widest margin against current US President Joe Biden in the Cowboy State.  She continues to double down on her rebuke of Trump and will be appearing in primetime to present evidence uncovered by the committee.

“[W]e face a threat we have never faced before — a former president attempting to unravel our constitutional republic,” she explained. "At this moment we must all summon the courage to stand against that.

“The question for every one of us is in this time of testing, will we do our duty? Will we defend our Constitution? Will we stand for truth? Will we put duty to our oath above partisan politics? Or will we look away from danger, ignore the threat, embrace the lies, and enable the liar?”

The Wyoming primaries will take place on Tuesday, August 16, 2022.  While you can bet online in Wyoming, state-sanctioned apps do not allow political wagering.  BetOnline offers a web-based browser site available to Wyoming residents.

- Alejandro Botticelli, Gambling911.com Senior Correspondent