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There were some massive victories in primaries this week, and they have directly impacted the Governor and Senate odds that are offered for wagering.
SportsBetting.ag has updated its race probabilities, which you can find below. The site's political analyst and oddsmaker, Paul Krishnamurty, provides commentary.
“Following his runaway victory over Trump-endorsed David Perdue in Tuesday’s primary, Governor Brian Kemp has hit his best odds yet for re-election. While the 2018 race between Kemp and Stacey Abrams was close, it took place against the backdrop of a nationwide ‘Blue Wave.'
"The Republicans are undoubtably in a much stronger position now. Kemp evidently has retained an impressive level of support in the state, and he also holds a commanding lead in early polls.
"The more competitive race in Georgia is for the Senate, where Herschel Walker is favorite to defeat incumbent Raphael Warnock. However, we have seen more money for the experienced incumbent than the former football player turned politician.”
Odds will update in real-time on this page leading up to the elections:
SENATE RACES
Georgia
HERSCHEL WALKER (R) -210
RAPHAEL WARNOCK (D) +155
(Walker's implied probability for victory is 67.7%)
Texas
GREG ABBOTT (R) -900
BETO O’ROURKE (D) +500
(Abbott's implied probability for victory is 90.0%)
"The senseless and horrific shooting this week is certainly not something to make light of or wager on, but it could impact one particular market: Texas Governor.
"However, I’d be skeptical that this will meaningfully change the Texas race, given that both Abbott/Beto have clear, strident positions on gun control, and the electorate seems typically fixed along partisan lines. There may be some excitement from liberals regarding Beto’s clarity on the matter, but the polls firmly suggest his politics remain the minority in Texas."
North Carolina
TED BUDD (R) -1200
CHERI BEASLEY (D) +550
(Budd's implied probability for victory is 92.3%)
Ohio
JD VANCE (R) -1000
TIM RYAN (D) +525
(Vance's implied probability for victory is 90.9%)
Wisconsin
Will Ron Johnson be re-elected?
YES: -400
NO: +250
(Johnson's implied probability for victory is 80.0%)
Alaska
Will Lisa Murkowski be re-elected?
YES: -500
NO: +300
(Murkowski's implied probability for victory is 83.3%)
GOVERNOR RACES
Georgia
BRIAN KEMP (R) -500
STACEY ABRAMS (D) +300
(Kemp's implied probability for victory is 83.3%)
Kansas
DEREK SCHMIDT (R) -400
LAURA KELLY (D) +250
(Schmidt's implied probability for victory is 80.0%)
Maine
JANET MILLS (D) -250
PAUL LEPAGE (R) +185
(Mills' implied probability for victory is 71.4%)
