Latest Political Odds Show Changing Projections in U.S. and U.K.
Following their victories and progress in last week’s Gubernatorial elections, the Republicans continue to shorten their odds across the political betting markets.
SportsBetting.ag has shifted its odds for the 2022 Senate race. The victorious party has essentially flipped from the Dems being favored to now GOP being favored.
To win Senate in 2022
Republicans: -300 (initially +200)
Democrats: +200 (initially -300)
To win Nevada Senate
Republicans: -120 (initially +110)
Democrats: -120 (initially -150)
To win Arizona Senate
Republicans: -120 (initially +125)
Democrats: -120 (initially -165)
To win Pennsylvania Senate
Republicans: -120 (initially +125)
Democrats: -120 (initially -165)
Also, the online wagering platform has created markets for which political candidates will advance the furthest during the 2024 election cycle.
For example, the candidate to achieve higher share of vote in the General Election or respective party primary. If neither are on either general election or opening ballot of primaries, all bets are void.
Candidate to Progress Furthest in 2024 Elections
Trump -130
Biden -110
Trump -150
Harris +110
DeSantis -120
Harris -120
DeSantis -110
Yang -130
Buttigieg -160
Warren +120
Haley -120
Warren -120
Cruz -150
Sanders +110
"This was an extremely challenging to market to price, much more so than a conventional race," SportsBetting.ag political analyst Paul Krishnamurty said. "Take the Andrew Yang vs. Ron DeSantis matchup. If RDS is the Republican candidate, -110 would be the value bet of all-time. However, he may well not be the candidate, whereas Yang now has his own minor party and, in my view, will likely run.
"Likewise, how to price Ted Cruz versus Bernie Sanders? Few rates either man’s chances of winning the presidency, but both have finished runner-up in primaries previously. And both could very plausibly run, were Trump and Biden not involved in the race."
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Across the pond, Prime Minister Boris Johnson is on the ropes after a spate of corruption scandals. His Conservative Party have slipped slightly in the polls, but remain favorites at -200 (down from -250) to win "Most Seats" at the next General Election.
It isn’t only the Conservatives mired in sleaze allegations. Labour have sacked one of their MPs, Claudia Webbe, after she was convicted of harassment. Webbe is appealing a two-year suspended jail sentence.
We have a market on any member of the UK House of Commons being jailed before the end of 2023. The odds are:
Yes: +300
No: -500
