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Oz Closes Gap With Fetterman in New Pennsylvania Poll: Latest Odds

Written by:
Gilbert Horowitz
Published on:
Oct/19/2022

John Fetterman (D) was coming in at -130 odds to win the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate race. Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) was now at -110.  Both candidates are now in the minus category, meaning the reward is lower than the risk.  As an example, a bet on Fetterman requires a $30 bet to win $10.  That $30 is refunded along with the $10 profit only if Fetterman were to win.  A bet on Oz requires an $11 bet to win $10.  That $11 is refunded along with the $10 profit only if Oz were to win.  There was a period earlier in the summer when a $10 bet on the Republican candidate would pay out more than $30.

A new poll shows that the GOP candidate is currently closing the gate with just over two weeks until the Midterm election after Fetterman led by double digits earlier in the summer.

An AARP Pennsylvania poll found Fetterman receiving 48 percent support among likely voters, compared to Oz at 46 percent.  The margin of error is 4.4 percentage points. 

While Oz has never led in this race he is leading in specific categories, most notably among independents (51 percent to 44 percent).  

Among male voters Oz is leading 54 percent to 41 percent, rural voters by a wide margin of 60 percent to 36 percent and voters with less than a four-year college degree, 49 percent to 44 percent.

Fetterman holds a slight advantage over Oz among voters between the ages of 18 and 49 years old, 48 percent to 45 percent.  He is also leading slightly with voters aged 50 years old and above, 49 percent to 47 percent.

Fetterman is running away with the support among PA women, 56 percent to 38 percent.  He also has an edge among suburban voters by 50 percent compared to 44 percent for the Republican candidate.

Fetterman's health is an issue in this race.  The Democrat suffered a stroke earlier in the summer. He has had cognitive issues since and only agreed to a debate with Oz as long as there are captions.

An in-depth interview with journalist Rebecca Traister for the October cover for New York has also led to some controversy.

She tweeted out after the interview:

“Fetterman speaks about what it’s like to have a doctor (Oz) mock his recovery — a gross irony, yes. Also ironic is news media clamoring for transparency, then themselves offering distortion: implying challenges are cognitive when they’re not, failing to contextualize accommodations.”

On Monday, The Atlantic’s Elaine Godfrey spoke with Fetterman supporters during the campaign trail and reported that most appeared unfazed by the candidate’s recent health challenges.

She also found that the Democrat continues to be embraced for his blue collar appeal.

"Which is to say that Fetterman’s just-like-us appeal before his stroke may have only increased in its wake—that knowing what it’s like to go through a major health challenge, to live with a disability, and to navigate the thorny thicket of the American health-care system is actually an asset in voters’ minds, not a liability," Godfrey wrote. 

Throughout the summer the Fetterman campaign has been hammering Oz on his residency status, suggesting he owns homes in various jurisdictions, just not the state he is running in.

They have also sought to paint Oz as an elitist who eats Crudités, as opposed to veggie plates, and is unfamiliar with Pennsylvania's popular supermarket chain Wegmans.

The Republican candidate tried to explain.

“When I joke about a crudité,” Oz told Newsmax, it “is a way of speaking about how ridiculous it is that you can’t even put vegetables on a plate in the middle of a campaign.”

He then pledged, “We’ll do whatever we need to do to make sure the people of Pennsylvania respect what we’re about and we’re going to work as hard as we can to fix their problems. It’s what I’ve done my whole life. I challenge my opponent: What have you done in your life to make things better for the people of Pennsylvania?”

- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com

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