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Former US Vice President and Democratic candidate Joe Biden is in serious contention to win Texas. While polls still favor Trump, early voting numbers are tending to favor Biden. This, of course, can all change on Election Day. Nevertheless, Biden is the obvious value bet with a payout potential of $27.50 on every $10 bet. Trump still has some value being that he is a doable favorite at -375. One would have to bet $37.50 to win/profit $10 (the $37.50 is only refunded should he win).
The trends are favoring Biden, though Democratic leaning Quinnipiac had this one as a statistical tie, an indication that Trump is still likely within two points of winning the Lone Star State.
Rasmussen Reports leans heavily Republican and had Trump up 7 points earlier in the month. There has been a general two point improvement for Biden since that time and we would shave off around four points from Rasmussen. Again, this places Trump within a two-point lead.
But with such a sizeable payout, Biden is our value pick for sure.
| RCP Average | 10/5 - 10/25 | -- | -- | 48.0 | 45.4 | Trump +2.6 |
| NY Times/Siena* | 10/20 - 10/25 | 802 LV | 3.8 | 47 | 43 | Trump +4 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/16 - 10/19 | 1145 LV | 2.9 | 47 | 47 | Tie |
| University of Houston | 10/13 - 10/20 | 1000 LV | 3.1 | 50 | 45 | Trump +5 |
| Dallas Morning News* | 10/13 - 10/20 | 925 LV | 3.2 | 45 | 48 | Biden +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/5 - 10/6 | 1000 LV | 3.0 | 51 | 44 | Trump +7 |
- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com
