Bet on Whether SCOTUS Allows States to Disqualify Trump From Appearing on Ballot

BetOnline was expected to release odds on whether the US Supreme Court will disqualify former President Donald Trump following a shock ruling by the Colorado Supreme Court that bans Trump from appearing on the ballot there.  And we should have a better read on the SCOTUS mindset following a hearing with Trump's lawyers Thursday morning February 8.  This hearing will be televised via audio (no cameras allowed in the Court).

“A majority of the court holds that Trump is disqualified from holding the office of president under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment,” the court wrote

It was a 4-3 decision in the Colorado Supreme Court.  The dissenters do not challenge the findings that Trump engaged in insurrection, attorney Andrew Weissmann said Tuesday evening.  

Colorado’s highest court overturned a ruling from a district court judge who found that Trump incited an insurrection for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, but said he could not be barred from the ballot because it was unclear that the provision was intended to cover the presidency.

"(It's) not whether Donald Trump did this or not but rather this procedural argument," Weissmann said.  "I think this is where you will see the battle in the Supreme Court.

"This will be decided by the Supreme Court," Weissman made clear while appearing on MSNBC.

“We do not reach these conclusions lightly,” wrote the court’s majority. “We are mindful of the magnitude and weight of the questions now before us. We are likewise mindful of our solemn duty to apply the law, without fear or favor, and without being swayed by public reaction to the decisions that the law mandates we reach.”

Trump’s attorneys had promised to appeal any disqualification immediately to the nation’s highest court, which has the final say about constitutional matters.

“The Colorado Supreme Court issued a completely flawed decision tonight and we will swiftly file an appeal to the United States Supreme Court and a concurrent request for a stay of this deeply undemocratic decision,” Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said in a statement Tuesday night.

Some experts question whether Colorado has jurisdiction in this matter.

Other states will almost certainly follow suit should the Court support the Colorado ruling.

And while Trump may see plenty of voters write in his name should he be removed from the ballot, those votes might not count.

The names of write-in candidates often end up being lumped into a single category, unless a write-in hopeful has alerted state election officials or has filled out needed paperwork ahead of time to ensure their ballots are tabulated separately, according to PBS. Trump likely won't have that option.

In Massachusetts and 33 other states, write-in presidential candidate must fill out paperwork before an election to ensure their ballots are tallied. In a handful of states, write-in voting for presidential candidates is simply not allowed. The remaining states do not require presidential write-in candidates to file special paperwork before the election.

The current makeup of the Supreme Court is majority conservative.  Three of the justices were appointed by Trump.  Some pundits suggest there could be recusals.

BetOnline currently had Trump as a slight favorite to win the 2024 general election.

- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com