2009 Final Four Predictions

What everybody's been waiting for - Gambling911.com has your 2009 Final Four Predictions.  Essentially, these are edges that every sports bettor needs to know in order to help enjoy a successful weekend.  After all, we understand you all lost your perfect bracket again this year.  You can still walk off a winner with these 2009 Final Four predictions....at least that's what we're hoping.

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Do you know that Villanova stands a better than 50 percent chance of winning against North Carolina outright?

Using the money line when playing against teams that score more than 77 points after 15 plus games, Villanova enjoys a record of 10 wins and 1 loss.  Good stat but this is North Carolina they're playing and it's a tough pill to swallow.   Take away the "after 15 games" scenario and the record becomes 19-5 over the last two seasons. 

The problem we have is that North Carolina is 18-4 in all non-conference road games over the last two seasons. 

There is something to consider, however.  Taking into account both variables, it might be a smart move to bet the Villanova spread, which is a healthy +7 at SBG Global

The Sagarin Ratings indicate that North Carolina should only be able to win by 4 points.  Therefore, we do like Villanova to at least cover the 7 points.

Some hot trends from our friends over at Covers.com that also factor into this pick:

Head to head, UNC leads the all-time tournament series with Villanova, 3-1, with Nova's sole victory coming in the 1985 Elite Eight. Overall, UNC holds a 9-4 SU series advantage.

Jay Wright is 0-1 against the Tar Heels but hasn't seen them on the court since 2005's Sweet 16 contest. Carolina went on to win the National Championship that year.

Both UNC and Villanova come in with hot numbers against the spread. North Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four tournament games. On the flip side, Villanova enters Saturday's contest 5-1 ATS in its last five tournament games played as an underdog and 8-2 on Saturdays. The kicker could very well be Nova's poor 1-4 record against the odds as an underdog of 7-12.5 points.

Good luck!  This game goes off around 9 pm EST.

Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com