How Early Voting Information Can Help With Electorial State Betting on November 5
Early votes are flowing in and one can get some idea of how candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are doing in critical swing states. BetOnline has odds for each. Let's take a look.
Nevada
Jon Ralston is the man to follow in Nevada. He's been covering politics in the Silver State for more than 30 years.
The Harry Reid machine helped turn Nevada from reliably red to blue in recent cycles but Reid is no longer with us and eary voting suggests Nevada may skip the purple and go straight from blue to red.
"Please don't pay attention to early voting (except in NV)," someone tweeted to Ralston. And they are probably right.
There are plenty of dynamics in play that make Nevada easier to read than other states, along with Ralston helping to interpret it all.
"Some Clark mail came in overnight, cut the GOP statewide lead to 40,500, or 5.2 points," Ralston said.
Clark is the most populous county in Nevada. It's the home of Las Vegas and the surrounding area.
"Overall Clark mail was nearly 26,000 ballots, which again lagged beyond the 30,000 who voted in the South in person. The Dems only gained 1,600 in Clark County on Tuesday when both methods are combined, so the GOP lead overall remains robust thanks to a strong Washoe showing and especially the rurals."
About 60 percent of the Nevada vote was in as of Wednesday morning, according to Ralston.
Things could change but it's probably not a good idea to bet against Trump in this state at the moment based on what we know so far.
"In 2020, the Republicans won early in-person in Clark by 2,500 to 4,000 ballots every day of the second week except for the last when the Dems surged. The mail countered those and that was also in the bygone days of big Clark Dem firewalls (it's only 6,200).
"Three days of early voting left, six days until the election."
Of all the swing states, we here at Gambling911.com think Nevada is most likely win for a particular candidate, in this case Donald Trump.
Trump is favored to win Nevada at -210 and there is probably value here.
Arizona
If Nevada is leaning more red, it goes to reason that Arizona should be following that same trend.
Republicans lead in early vote count in Arizona even though the Democrats turnout is higher. And the one unknown here is a biggie. Independents or unaffiliated voters are significant in this state.
Of those, according to Uplift Data, 589,000 are Republican ballots. 486,000 are from Democrats while 326,000 are others.
“There are more Republicans than there are Democrats,” said Sam Almy, of Uplift Data. “We just got the registration numbers statewide, republicans are up by about 300,000 voters.”
Independents, however, generally break towards the Democrat in the state.
And then there is this from Almy: "Generally, what I see is the Republicans crossing over to Democrat is around that 10% mark,” Almy said. “A little bit higher in the Senate race, a little bit less on the presidential level.”
More from 13 News:
That 10% crossover vote could overcome that 300,000 Republican registration advantage. According to Cole, many of those voters supported the late Sen. John McCain.
They are, in part, why the state is moving from red to purple.
“And as we become more purple, we see a lot of voters that are throwing their party identification aside and saying, I’m going to vote for a Democrat here, republican here,” Cole said.
Eight days before Election Day and 32% of the electorate has already voted either by mail or early voting in Arizona as of this past Monday.
Arizona is a bigger favorite than Nevada to go red at -275 but the state could pay nicely if it remains blue: $215 for every $100 bet.
North Carolina
Harris has moved all her resources to the Triangle in North Carolina.
The population here is just over 2 million and encompasses Raleigh Durham and Chapel Hill.
It's also heavily leaning Democrat.
From the Carolina Journal:
In the latest Carolina Journal statewide poll, Harris and Trump are tied at 47%. However, Trump leads Harris from Charlotte to western North Carolina by 12 points, and leads Harris by 9 points in North Carolina’s coastal area. They are tied in central North Carolina at 45%. Harris is ahead in the Triangle area of Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, leading 55% to Trump’s 40%.
The Charlotte Metro area has a population of close to 3 million and typically leans Democrat.
There is another 5 million in the state.
Over 3.1 million people across North Carolina have cast ballots between absentee and early in-person voting.
As of Tuesday, registered Republicans have a slight turnout edge over registered Democrats, 34%-33%, with the remaining 32% Unaffiliated.
The data also shows Black voters, historically a core part of the Democratic base are slightly behind in turnout, representing 18% of those who have voted, despite being 20% of registered voters.
Another data point Democrats are looking at is the fact that women are outvoting men 55%-45%, at a time when women's rights have become a key campaign issue.
Former State Representative Larry Hall (D - Durham) had this to offer ABC 11, the Central North Carolina affiliate serving Ralaigh Durham:
"The unaffiliated voters are key. They're younger. The newly registered voters are much younger. The younger vote is breaking for Harris, and virtually every poll is going to say they're in favor of Harris. So we feel encouraged about that. And it's a matter of getting them to the polls," Hall says.
North Caronlina is favored to stay red at -275 at BetOnline. While this could be the case, there is definitely value taking Harris at +215.
The Blue Wall
Trump is underperforming a bit with white male voters in Pennsylvania based on previous turnout numbers for him while Harris is underperforming with black voters compared to Joe Biden in 2020.
Then there is that little "Puerto Rican" thing from the MSG rally held this past week. Pennsylvania has a significant Puerto Rican population.
Harris leads in Michigan, 48 percent to 43 percent. In Wisconsin, Harris had 51 percent, compared to the former president’s 45 percent.
The polls were conducted Oct. 23-28 by phone and online and included interviews with 726 registered voters in Michigan, 819 in Pennsylvania and 736 in Wisconsin. The margins of error for likely voters were plus or minus 4.7 percentage points in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and 4.8 points in Wisconsin.
Democrats are favored to win Michigan but BetOnline has Trump winning both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Each are under -200.
Georgia
Record early voting but just like with most states, Republicans are no longer waiting around for Election Day.
Georgia is a heavy favorite to go to Trump at BetOnline (-300).
The Big Unknown: Women
Recent polls show former President Trump gaining ground with Latino and Black voters. However, the largest group of likely voters, White women, have shifted away from Trump in battleground states, according to CNN data reporter Harry Enten's analysis.
An aggregate of polling indicates that Harris is underperforming among White men, women of color and men of color, when compared to voters who supported President Biden in the 2020 Election. However, Harris is outperforming among White women to "a historic degree," Enten said.
Trump won this voting bloc by seven points in 2020, according to post-election surveys taken at the time. Since 2012, the Republican presidential candidate has won the White women vote.
The Nikki Haley Voter Factor
A new focus group of voters who backed former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in the 2024 Republican primaries shows the ideological and personal cross-pressures buffeting this group.
The NBC News Deciders Focus Group was conducted Monday evening and produced in collaboration with Syracuse University and the research firms Engagious and Sago.
“These voters show us two camps of Nikki Haley backers: those so turned off by former President Trump that they’ll vote third-party, stay home or even vote for Vice President Harris to keep Trump out of the White House, and those who will hold their nose and vote Trump because he’s the Republican nominee and they’re Republicans," said Margaret Talev, the director of Syracuse University’s Institute for Democracy, Journalism & Citizenship in Washington.
"Most of the voters we heard from have known for months which camp they’re in," she continued. "Endorsement for Harris from the Cheneys, or ex-Trump Cabinet officials, weren’t moving the needle, though the offensive Trump rally at Madison Square Garden might yet sway some still weighing their choices.”
Haley captured nearly 22% of primary votes from Trump in Indiana months after she quit the race.
What this suggests is that there is a segment of voters who came out to vote against Trump.
Just two weeks prior, Haley received 157,581 votes or 16.6% in the Pennsylvania primary.
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