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Paul the Octopus was literally the most accurate sports handicapper on the planet when considering winning records
Though he is long gone, his prediction method has been studied and enhanced by one German economist who predicts that The Netherlands will win this year's World Cup paying out US$1700 for every US$100 bet
We all know that octopuses are among the most intelligent living creatures, but did you know they can accurately predict sports event outcomes?
During a stretch of several soccer games during the 2010 season, an octopus named Paul correctly predicted the outcome of all games presented to him.
It seems there was actually a method to his madness after all.
Paul died that same year, but his prediction method lives on.
According to Flora Snelson of the BBC, German economist Joachim Klement has trumped Paul with a complex forecast model which has kept a 100% record of predicting the World Cup winner since 2014.
The Netherlands would become the fourth of four predicted winners to fulfill Klement's statistical prophecy if they lift the trophy in July, she notes.
For the 2026 FIFA World Cup, he has The Netherlands winning with a pretty sweet payout potential of US$1700 for every US$100 bet.
His techniques include:
- GDP and economic strength of countries
- Population size
- Host-country advantage
- Historical World Cup performance
- Team market values/talent pools
- Bookmaker odds
- Statistical regression models
- Randomness adjustments acknowledging luck and variance
Astute observers will note that Klement's uses eight techniques, the same number as Paul's arms.
He does urge gamblers and fans alike to take these predictions with a grain of salt.
"Because I was right three times in a row, people now think that this model is unbeatable and that I obviously will have to be right as well next time," he said.
"Every match - especially when you have these high-quality teams playing against each other that are very similar in skills and quality - it really depends on the form of the day, a ref call, a piece of luck in the sense of hitting the post versus the ball going in.
"Things like that are completely unpredictable."
Each time the tournament approaches, Klement's model offers a welcome diversion from his day-to-day work: "In particular in 2026, when there are so many crises, wars and things going on, it is something that makes me feel good and hopefully the readers feel good and gives them a little bit of a distraction from all the kind of bad stuff that is going on in the world."
But with each accurate prediction, the weight of expectation mounts on Klement, who works as a strategist at investment bank Panmure Liberum.
Who was Paul the Octopus?
Paul the Octopus was a real octopus living at the Sea Life Oberhausen who became world famous during the 2010 FIFA World Cup for correctly “predicting” soccer match winners.
Handlers would place two transparent boxes in his tank:
- Each box had food inside
- Each represented a country’s flag
- Whichever box Paul opened first was considered his prediction
Don't Get Caught in the Tentacles of Scamdicappers
Despite what anybody might say, the real Paul the Octopus died a long time ago.
Anyone claiming to actually be in contact with Paul and receiving his free picks on this year's World Cup should be considered fraudsters.
Klement's picks are only based on Paul's predictive model enhancements.
Odds to Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Spain
+450
France
+480
England
+650
Brazil
+750
Argentina
+900
Portugal
+950
Germany
+1300
Netherlands
+1700
Belgium
+2500
Norway
+3300
Colombia
+5000
Uruguay
+6000
USA
+6500
Switzerland
+6500
Mexico
+7000
Croatia
+7000
Morocco
+7500
Türkiye
+10000
Japan
+10000
Ecuador
+10000
Austria
+10000
Senegal
+12500
Sweden
+15000
Scotland
+17500
Ivory Coast
+20000
Canada
+25000
Ghana
+25000
Paraguay
+25000
Egypt
+30000
Algeria
+30000
Bosnia & Herzegovina
+35000
Czechia
+50000
South Korea
+50000
Iran
+75000
DR Congo
+100000
Tunisia
+150000
Australia
+200000
Cape Verde
+250000
Uzbekistan
+250000
Haiti
+250000
Panama
+250000
Curacao
+250000
Jordan
+250000
Saudi Arabia
+250000
Iraq
+250000
Qatar
+250000
South Africa
+250000
New Zealand
+250000
- Alistair Prescott, Gambling911.com
