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Former U.S. president Donald Trump is widely expected to appeal his Manhattan "hush money" trial verdict and the betting market has spoken.
Trump became the first U.S. president ever convicted of a crime. A jury found him guilty on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records related to payments made to adult film star Stormy Daniels in 2016.
It is entirely possible that Trump will become the first U.S. president to serve jail time as well but don't count on that happening. Most experts believe the chances of Trump being sentenced to a prison term is highly unlikely, especially considering he's never been convicted of a crime in his nearly 80 years of existence. The gambling public agrees. The odds do get shorter as we move forward into other years. Trump serving jail time prior to 2026 pays out just $200 for every $100 bet at BetUS.
Sentencing is scheduled for July 11 and, yes, there is a betting market for whether that date gets pushed back.
Under state law, Trump and his legal team have 30 days from the date of sentencing to file a written notice of appeal with the New York Supreme Court, and six months to file their full appeal. Trump has vowed to do just that.
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"We think an appeal has a lot of merit. We think we're going to win on appeal," Trump's attorney Todd Blanche told CBS News chief election and campaign correspondent Robert Costa on Friday.
97 percent of those betting at Polymarket agree this will happen.
There will most certainly be a betting market on whether Trump wins his appeal and those odds will be less favorable for the former president. We're likely talking odds on the single digits.
"That essentially has no possibility of success," Richard Serafini, a former federal and Manhattan prosecutor, told Axios, explaining that specific factors would have to be met, including new evidence or misconduct. "None of those exist in this case, at least to this point," he added.
But it's not all doom and gloom for the presumptive GOP nominee ahead of the 2024 general election.
Some attorneys have claimed Trump's legal team did not receive proper notice of the three different theories of the unlawful means Trump intended to commit in violation of New York election law, which prosecutors told the jury in closing arguments.
"If he was not given proper notice of those charges until the last minute, or just procedurally it was done incorrectly, that could be a strong argument," Brian Buckmire, and ABC News legal contributor, told ABC News.
Trump's team could argue the charges were unconstitutionally "vague" based on the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments.
"In a criminal law setting, if a statute is too vague, as to inform the average citizen what actions would cause criminal liability, it would be void, because it's vague and how I would say it applies here would be, it'd be very hard for any attorney before Donald Trump's trial to say that we would know, or be aware of, or could even advise a potential client that federal election laws -- which a state prosecutor doesn't have jurisdiction over -- could be used to elevate a misdemeanor, that has passed the statute limitations, into a felony, that is within the statute of limitations," Buckmire said.
The Polymarket betting market on Trump appealing this verdict in the "hush money" trial will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump appeals any or all convictions in his New York hush money case. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "No" if Trump does not file an appeal by the legal deadline for filing his notice of appeal.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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