Bet on Trump's Favorability If He's Convicted in Hush Money Trial

BetOnline is offering odds on former U.S. president Donald Trump's favorability should he be found guilty in his Manhattan hush money trial.  We could have a verdict as soon as Thursday May 30.

Prior to the verdict, these were the odds (the numbers below include all point values up to .9), and the specific date is July 1, 2024:

41% pays $225 for every $100 bet.

40% pays $275 for every $100 bet.

42% pays $300 for every $100 bet.

39% pays $700 for every $100 bet.

43% pays $700 for every $100 bet.

Under 39% pays $1200 for every $100 bet.

Over 44% pays $2000 for every $100 bet.

After six weeks and 22 witnesses, the panel of 12 Manhattan residents will decide if the 77-year-old will be the first former president guilty of a crime.  He is charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree.

The jury returned on Wednesday to hear instructions from the judge before they were sent out to decide their verdicts.

The big unknown heading into the month of June is what shift, if any, will occur in the former president's approval rating (and odds) should he be found guilty by a jury of his own peers.

An ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted this month found that 16% of Trump's supporters would reconsider their support while 4% would leave him altogether if he is convicted of a felony.

A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll of seven swing states in January found 9% of Republican-leaning voters would be somewhat unwilling to vote for Trump if he is convicted of a crime, while 14% of those voters said they would be very unwilling to vote for him.

Those are really bad numbers for Trump.  But time tends to be on the former president's side as he has an uncanny ability to recapture those who slip from his base.

And it's not as if this news is a slam dunk for the current president, Joe Biden. A USA Today/Suffolk poll in March found 14% of Trump supporters said they would leave him if he is convicted. But less than 1% would move to Biden. The biggest chunk, 7.5%, said they would move to a third party.  Can you say "RFK Jr"?

2 in 3 registered U.S. voters say a guilty verdict would have no effect on whom they plan to vote for in the presidential election, according to a PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll to be released Thursday.

67 percent of voters said a conviction would make no difference for them in November, including 74 percent of independents.  Although that still leaves around a quarter of independents who might back away from Trump.

Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg told PBS that, if Trump “ends up getting found guilty, I think it makes it much less likely for him to win. But [Democrats] don’t need it in order to win.”

Republican strategist Douglas Heye said he thought a guilty verdict would “give a subset of voters something to think about, but not a ton of voters.”