Muammar Gaddafi No Longer in Power In Libya Biggest Bet At Prediction Market

Written by:
Gilbert Horowitz
Published on:
Muammar Gaddafi

Good news for the people of Libya as the most likely event to take place per the folks betting at the prediction market is that Muammar Gaddafi will no longer be ruling Libya by year’s end. 

Sure that’s 10 months away, but the date is merely a technicality.  Bottom line is, the prediction market has spoken and Gaddafi should be gone soon. 

The likelihood of this happening now stands at 87.5 percent.

These numbers come in as the situation in Tripoli continues to radically deteriorate. 

The Associated Press (AP) reported that Gaddafi is allowing civilian supporters in Tripoli access to his arms depot in order to shoot protesters. They are also apparently patrolling the city on trucks and periodically shooting at anti-Gaddafi demonstrators.

"We shall destroy any aggression with popular will," he said. "With the armed people, when necessary we will open the weapons depots. So that all the Libyan people, all the Libyan tribes can be armed. Libya will become a red flame, a burning coal."

The next likely political event happening on the Arab uprising front is that Ali Abdullah Saleh will no longer by President of Yemen by year’s end.  The odds of this happening were at 74 percent. 

And for those of you following, is also offering odds on the price of oil, which continues to rise along with the uprisings. 

- Gilbert Horowitz,

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