Saudi Arabia and Israel Normalize Relations Before 2024 US Elections Odds

Written by:
Gilbert Horowitz
Published on:

Key takeaways:

Saudi Arabia and Israel normalizing relations prior to the 2024 Presidential elections in November stands a 15% chance of happening (or 11/2 odds for a payout of $550 on a $100 bet) as of May 18, 2024, according to the event odds site Polymarket.


The State of Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have never had formal diplomatic relations. In 1947, Saudi Arabia voted against the United Nations Partition Plan for Palestine, and currently does not recognize Israeli sovereignty.  Alas, there is some hope of normalizing of relations.

In 2023, bilateral negotiations towards Israeli–Saudi normalization were ongoing with the U.S. serving as a mediator for both nations.  These talks continue despite Israel's armed conflict with Hamas-led Palestinian militant groups that has been taking place chiefly in the Gaza Strip following an attack and kidnapping of civilians by Hamas militants inside Israel on October 7.  On that date some 767 civilians are believed to have been killed while another 252 civilians and soldiers were taken captive.

Before the attack, Saudi Arabia warned Israel of an "explosion" as a result of the continued occupation.

Saudi Arabia’s official position is that it will not open diplomatic relations with Israel unless an independent Palestinian state is recognized.


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The White House has made it clear to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that a major Rafah operation would reduce the chance for a historic peace deal with Saudi Arabia.

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan was meeting with Saudi officials the weekend of May 18.

"Israel's long-term security depends on being integrated into the region and enjoying normal relations with the Arab states, including Saudi Arabia," Sullivan told reporters days prior.


Note on Middle East Markets from Polymarket: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not.  Polymarket is not accessible within the U.S. at this time.


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