Trump Stung By Series of Bad Polls, Still Favored at -165

There were signs that last month's guilty verdict against former U.S. president and presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump in his Manhattan hush money trial were beginning to hit him in recent polling though BetOnline had Trump rebounding back as the -165 favorite following a brief post-trial dip.

Trump was convicted on 34 counts of falsifying business records related to trying to conceal hush money payment to an adult film star, Stormy Daniels, ahead of the 2016 election.

A CBS News/YouGov survey released Sunday showed Trump narrowly ahead of Biden overall (50 percent to 49 percent).  However, Biden was now on top by 1 percentage point in seven critical swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The poll was conducted among 2,063 U.S. adults from June 5-7, just days after Trump was found guilty.

That same survey found that Biden is preferred by independents over Trump by two points (50 percent to 48 percent).

A Yahoo News/YouGov poll conducted from June 3-6 found that 41 percent of independents said they would support Biden in November, compared to 38 percent supporting Trump.

The Yahoo News survey was conducted among 1,854 U.S. adults. The margin of error was 2.8 percent.

The Yahoo News/YouGov poll poll was especially striking in that  Biden (46 percent) overtook Trump (44 percent) to lead the race for the first time since October 2023.

The 46 percent score for Biden is his highest in Yahoo News/YouGov surveys since August 2023.

That poll found that 52% believe Trump’s conviction was a “fair outcome meant to hold him accountable for his own actions”; just 35% who say it was “an unfair outcome meant to damage him politically.” And 49% think Trump was “more of a criminal” in the trial, versus 34% who consider him “more of a victim.”

Despite all of this, Trump remained just as popular (or unpopular, depending on how one looks at things) after his conviction as before.

Trump’s favorable/unfavorable ratio on May 30 was 43 percent favorable to 54 percent unfavorable. As of June 10 it is also 43 favorable to 54 percent unfavorable.