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Bettors have been chiming in on who is likely to win Tuesday night's debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and the former president Donald Trump.
Coming into the Debate, Trump was a slight -120 favorite in recent days with Harris hanging between -110 and +100. For a while there we saw both candidates tied at +110.
BetOnline is offering 50+ prop bets for Tuesday night's Debate, which is expected to draw Super Bowl numbers (60 million plus).
The map below (courtesy of BetOnline) is based on geotagged X (Twitter) data in the last week (7 days) tracking tweets, hashtags and direct keyword phrases about who will win the debate on September 10th. For example, keyword phrases like "Trump will win the debate," "Trump is going to win the debate," "Trump will dominate the debate," "Kamala will win the debate," "Kamala will dominate the debate," etc. as well as phrases like "Kamala will win" that also have debate hashtags such as #debate, #POTUSdebate, #presidentialdebate. Over 240,000 tweets were tracked.
As you can see from the map, more states believe Trump will win tonight, however, if this was based on electoral votes, the result would be close.
Here is the breakdown:
Trump - 30 states
Harris - 20 states
Would be electoral votes:
Trump - 296
Harris - 242
It should be noted that Donald Trump supporters are generally more active than Harris supporters on social media as she is the "lesser known" candidate.
In addition, some pundits suggest Trump has an advantage in that he is expected to do "less" than Harris, and that there may be more pressure on her to make an impact.
Betting sites and oddsmakers, which have been consistently referenced during this election cycle (as they have been fairly accurate in the past) also have Trump at a very slight advantage. However this could definitely change, as Harris was looked at as the favorite just a week ago.
All in all, it's likely this will be a close election.
