Will a Democratic Senator Call on Biden to Drop Out of Race Betting Odds
The pressure on Joe Biden continues as the White House remains in panic mode following last Thursday's debate debacle. And time is not on the side of the current president it seems.
Biden insists he will remain in the race. His campaign sent out an email to that effect on Wednesday.
"Folks, I know the past few days have been tough. I'm sure you're getting a lot of questions. I'm sure many of you have questions as well.
"So, let me say this as clearly and simply as I can: I'm running.
"I'm the Democratic Party’s nominee. No one is pushing me out. I'm not leaving, I'm in this race to the end, and WE are going to win this election."
Biden's odds to become president took a nose dive on Wednesday, moving to +500 from +250 earlier. Vice President Kamala Harris was now at 4-1 odds while presumptive GOP candidate Donald Trump actually dipped from -170 to -160.
Will a U.S. Senator Call on Biden to Drop Out?
Polymarket had odds of a U.S. Senator calling on Biden to drop out at -170. In other words, the odds of this happening are pretty good.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Democratic senator publicly states that Joe Biden should drop out of the 2024 presidential race before 12:00 AM ET on the first day of the Democratic National Convention, currently scheduled for August 19, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Statements that the Democratic party should nominate another candidate other than Joe Biden will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Statements that are hedged or express ambiguity, such as “We need to consider our options for the nominee” will NOT qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
If the DNC does not begin by August 31, and any Democratic senator has not called for Biden to leave the ticket, this market will resolve to "No."
A senator will be considered to be a member of the party they caucus with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Democratic senators or their official representative(s); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Governors Support Biden, or So They Say
Biden met for more than hour at the White House on Wednesday night, in person and virtually, with more than 20 Democratic governors who afterward described the conversation as “candid” but said they were standing behind Biden despite being concerned about a Trump victory in November.
“The president is our nominee. The president is our party leader,” said Gov. Wes Moore of Maryland. He added that, in the meeting, Biden “was very clear that he’s in this to win.”
Despite such reassuring sentiments, a major Democratic donor, Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings, also called on the president to exit the race, saying, “Biden needs to step aside to allow a vigorous Democratic leader to beat Trump and keep us safe and prosperous.” The statement was first reported by The New York Times.
Trump Claims Biden Already Out
For his part, Trump has remained mostly uncharacteristically quiet about the Biden situation.
But by late Wednesday, a leaked video showed Trump claiming that Joe Biden is quitting the race, which he attributes to his own efforts. Trump expresses a preference for running against Kamala Harris, whom he criticizes as being very bad and pathetic.
LEAKED VIDEO: Trump on Biden he’s “quitting the race.. I got him out” he’s an “old broken-down pile of crap… Now we have Kamala. She’s so f—king bad”
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) July 4, 2024
pic.twitter.com/G9eLy1hmIc
Be careful what you wish for.
A CNN poll released Tuesday found that 45 percent of registered voters would support Harris in a hypothetical match-up with Trump. She is 2 percentage points behind the former president, who received 47 percent support in a head-to-head contest with Harris. Five percent of respondents said they would choose someone else.
On the other hand, Biden trailed Trump by 6 points in the poll. Trump is leading with 49 percent support in a match-up with the president, while Biden received 43 percent support. Another 4 percent said they would vote for someone else.
It's unclear how many of those polled when asked about Harris remained committed to Biden while he's yet to back out of the race and whether her numbers could improve if he does. As noted above, Trump's odds took a slight dip.
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