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Polymarket, one of the leading prediction markets, says it intends to shed its cryptocurrency bet resolutions in the US upon entrance into the market.
Considered one of the more controversial features at Polymarket, this "resolution" refers to the way the platform determines a final outcome of a bet once the underlying event has conclusively happened. Polymarket does not incorporate a centralized bookmaker to determine outcomes but rather relies on UMA’s Optimistic Oracle (Traditional Method). with anyone using the platform having the ability to stake a bond (typically around $750). Provided there are no disputes, it then becomes final.
When a market resolves, the final outcome is set according to the market’s pre-defined rules with winning shares paid out at $1 apiece and losing shares at zero. Trading then halts.
How Things Will Work Now
From Sportico:
In the U.S., the prediction market operator, as opposed to cryptocurrency token holders, will decide which way all of its binary “yes” or “no” wagers should resolve, chief marketing officer Matthew Modabber confirmed to Sportico.
Government filings in recent months suggested this would be the case. In documents sent to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) outlining some of the specific bets it will offer, Polymarket writes that wager results will be “determined by the exchange in its sole and absolute discretion.”
Dan Bernstein of Sportico noted that the UMA method has sparked backlash in the past as gamblers expressed concern over "voters not always giving an honest assessment of Polymarket contract rules that stipulate the conditions for a 'yes' determination" when it comes to election betting contracts.
He points to a recent contract asking "whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would wear a 'suit' before July devolved into heated semantic debate over what constituted a 'suit,' with millions of dollars on the line. The ultimate 'no' resolution infuriated 'yes' bettors."
Prophyt, an all-in-one sports intelligence, questioned the move and its potential impact.
"Interesting move by Polymarket. This could push more U.S. bettors toward traditional sportsbooks or offshore options for crypto-settled bets. The regulatory landscape keeps evolving. Are you seeing this impact your preferred betting platforms or payment methods?"
- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com Business Correspondent
