Who to Bet on in the 2022 Senate Races: Full Breakdown

Regardless of which party you support, smart gamblers will look at trending, pricing and the latest polls when it comes to betting on this year's U.S. Senate races.  There are a couple of key races on the Senate front that the bookmakers like BetOnline have honed in on.  Let's take a look at each of these.

Georgia Senate Race

Democrat Raphael Warnock is the favorite here but this one is still well within the margin of error.  Surprising considering all the bad press Herschel Walker has been getting of late.

Last week, news broke that Walker, a staunch pro life Republican, allegedly paid to have a woman get an abortion.  She provided a get well card and check that appeared to have Herschel's signature.  The Georgia Senate candidate denied knowing the woman.

It turns out she actually gave birth to one of his children.  Herschel wanted that child aborted as well, the unidentified woman claims.

Days after the news first broke, Walker changed his tune a bit in an interview with NBC News.

"I don't remember any card or check or anything. But I was dating her. I could have sent some money. I could have sent a card," Walker told the national media outlet.

Despite all of this and what might be viewed as other "damning" revelations surfacing since Walker entered the race (i.e. that he has other children he hardly knows), BetOnline has Warnock as the -250 favorite.  You can look at this one of two ways: The 111-51 LA Dodgers starting one of their best pitchers against the 55-107 Washington Nationals or the Green Bay Packers going up against the New York Giants.  Well, in the later case, Green Bay lost to the Giants as -460 favorites on the moneyline.  The bottom line is -250 is too close for comfort with Warnock.

One thing is almost certain: This should be a very close race no matter who walks away the winner.

U.S. President Joe Biden won the state by just +0.3 points.

Pennsylvania Senate Race

This is the one Democrats feel most confident about flipping.  The seat currently belongs to retiring Republican Senator Pat Toomey.

Over much of the summer, the Democratic candidate, John Fetterman, has led his GOP opponent, Dr. Mehmet Oz, by double digits in most polls.  That's no longer the case with just one month out.  Oz has cut that lead in half.

BetOnline has Fetterman's chances set at -200 (less favorable than Warnock's). 

Fetterman was mostly unable to campaign in person the first half of the summer after suffering a stroke.  That didn't stop the campaign from mocking Oz' residency status (he seems to own homes nearly everywhere except in PA) and his reference to a veggie plate as "crudites" while shopping at a popular super market chain he called by a different name.

In recent weeks, however, Oz has sought to paint Fetterman as soft on crime. 

ABC27 reports that five state polls all show Fetterman leading by an average of 5 points, not the 18-point high he hit in one poll months back.

Fetterman and Oz will participate in what is expected to be their only debate on October 25.

North Carolina Senate Race

This race has mostly been ignored on the national front but North Carolina is looking like one of the top 2 states that has the best chance of flipping in favor of the Democrats.

BetOnline has Ted Budd (R) what would seem like a comfortable -450 favorite. Cheri Beasley (D) pays nearly $30 for every $10 bet.

But polls show this one mostly in a dead heat.

Democrats remain skittish about throwing money into this race however.

“I’ve certainly weighed in with the people who control such things, and I think our whole delegation has,” said Rep. David Price (D-N.C.) tells Politico. “There’s a real case to be made, and we’re trying to make it … there’s some people who are fully engaged with this, but we all need to be.”

An average of polls show Budd up just 1.5 points.

Former President Donald Trump won this state by a mere 1.3 points. 

In that regard, North Carolina is about as purple a state as Georgia at the moment.

Nevada Senate Race

The Republicans best chance of flipping a race is in the Silver State where Republican Adam Laxalt leads by 2-points on average over incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto.

Laxalt paints himself as an "independent" while making Masto out to be a reckless spender.

“A truly independent senator would never have voted for trillions more in spending just a few weeks ago when our inflation is already at 16 percent,” Laxalt said during an event for the Republican Jewish Coalition late last month. “What is going on is absolutely unsustainable, and it is crushing the Las Vegas Valley and it's crushing the working class and the middle class.”

Ohio Senate Race

Polls show another tight race but don't tell that to the oddsmakers at BetOnline.  JD Vance (R) is coming in as the -450 odds favorite there.

Vance and Tim Ryan (D) are running to replace retiring GOP Senator Rob Portman.

Inflation and the economy appear to be the top issues in the Buckeye State. 

The two debated for the first time Monday night.

A poll conducted by Cleveland's Fox 8 News showed Vance won the debate 60-40 as of 9 am ET Tuesday.

Worth a Look

BetOnline has Wisconsin at Ron Johnson (R) -350 and Mandela Barnes (D) +225. 

Johnson, one of the more vulnerable incumbents, describes Barnes as "soft on crime".

"Because of that 'defund the police' effort, it is very difficult to recruit. We are 1,000 officers below where we were in Wisconsin just from 2008, and people are having a very difficult time. Sheriffs are having a very difficult time recruiting new officers. Where they may have had 100 recruits, they may have had a dozen," Johnson said.

"What we need to do is make sure that communities have the resources that they need to prevent that crime from happening in the first place. That means fully funding our schools. It also means making sure that there are good-paying jobs in communities, and we also invested $100 million into law enforcement, public safety and crime-prevention initiatives through the American Rescue Plan," Barnes said.

In Arizona, one-time astronaut Mark Kelly (D) continues to hold a lead right around the margin of error versus Blake Masters (R), the later of whom is yet to lead in any polls.

Republican Marco Rubio is back to being a -1000 plus favorite in Florida versus the Democrat Val Demings, a former Orlando police chief.  The polling averages only have him up by 4 points however.  He's in about as comfortable of a lead as Mark Kelly, if that is any comfort. 

- Alejandro Botticelli, Gambling911.com