Politics

New Poll Shows Ed Gallrein to Win Over Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Prediction Markets Say Otherwise

A new poll shows that incumbent Kentucky congressman Thomas Massie has fallen behind challenger and U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed Ed Gallrein.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Wed, 05/13/2026 - 23:04

Keir Starmer Out os UK Prime Minister Odds: Prediction Markets Favor Before June 30

Prediction markets give UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer a 56% chance of exiting by the end of June.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Tue, 05/12/2026 - 09:37

Jeff Kessler a Huge Favorite to Win West Virginia Democratic Primary for Senate, Will Still Be Heavy Underdog vs. Shelley Moore Capito

Jeff Kessler is a huge favorite to win the West Virginia Democratic Senate primary Tuesday at -2000.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Mon, 05/11/2026 - 19:46

Nebraska Democratic Primary House of Representatives Odds Have John Cavanaugh the -200 Favorite

Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District betting odds are competitive.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Mon, 05/11/2026 - 15:43

Louisiana Senate and House Republicans Have Incumbent Republican Senator Bill Cassidy as Huge 18-1 Longshot

We've got another wave of primary elections this week as the cycle trudges toward the immensely important November midterms.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Mon, 05/11/2026 - 14:15

Polymarket Traders Don't See UK, France Getting Involved in Strait of Hormuz Troop Deployments

This threat comes after the UK defence ministry announced to send a destroyer as "part of prudent planning". But just 22% of traders at Polymarket see this happening.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Sun, 05/10/2026 - 13:33

Xavier Becerra Now the -130 Favorite to Be California's Next Governor as Heavy Action Comes in on Democrat

In the wake of Gambling911's coverage of Becerra's rise, action flooded in on this betting market, pushing the Democrat to lone favorite status.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Sat, 05/09/2026 - 18:44

Xavier Becerra Attacks Accelerate as Oddsmakers Now Favor Democrat to Be Next California Governor

Becerra pays even odds to become the next California governor at Betonline.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Fri, 05/08/2026 - 09:59

Xavier Becerra Impressed Enough In California Governor Primary Debate He's Now Co-Favorite to Win

Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer now dead even in the odds to be next California governor

Submitted by t c jackson on, Wed, 05/06/2026 - 11:32

US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting By June 30 Prediction Market Sees Nearly 70 Percent Chance

U.S. President Donald Trump once again issues warning to Iran.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Wed, 05/06/2026 - 10:33

California Governor Odds Ahead of May 5 Debate Has Tom Steyer the Slight Favorite

Seven contenders for the California governor's race debate Tuesday night.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Tue, 05/05/2026 - 12:16

Supportive Talarico Poll Doesn't Move Odds in Texas

A new University of Texas poll shows Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading both potential Republican opponents in the Texas U.S. Senate race.

Submitted by Press Release on, Wed, 04/29/2026 - 15:50

Jimmy Kimmel Fired or Resigns by May 31 Odds - Prediction Markets Have This One at a 10 Percent Chance

First Lady Melania Trump along with the U.S. President Donald Trump call for ABC to pull the Jimmy Kimmel Show following remarks he made prior to Saturday shooting during White House correspondent's dinner.

Submitted by Jordan Bach on, Tue, 04/28/2026 - 10:25

Joe Scarborough, JD Vance, Sean Hannity Attending 2026 White House Correspondents' Dinner Odds

Prediction markets have Scarborough favored at the prediction markets.

Submitted by C Costigan on, Sat, 04/25/2026 - 13:35

Top Republican Lawmaker Signals GOP Openness to Pardoning Ghislaine Maxwell ... Prediction Markets Chances Surge

Polymarket traders are giving U.S. President Donald Trump odds of pardoning convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell a price of +426 (implied 19% chance).

Submitted by Jagajeet Chiba on, Sat, 04/25/2026 - 10:48

Next US Supreme Court Justice to Retire Odds

BetOnline is offering odds on how many US Supreme Court justices will retire or be replaced before the next presidential race in 2028 with even odds for two (presumably Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas).

Submitted by t c jackson on, Tue, 04/21/2026 - 09:41

Kash Patel, Howard Lutnick Exit Odds Plus Virginia Redistricting

On Tuesday, a special election in Virginia could allow Democrats to enact a redistricting measure that would net them as many as four House seats in this fall’s midterm elections.

Submitted by C Costigan on, Mon, 04/20/2026 - 11:29

FBI Director Kash Patel's Scary Polymarket Exit Chances Revealed: Half Say Out By April 30

Scathing article appearing in The Atlantic accuses FBI Director of "excessive drinking and unexplained absences"

Submitted by Jagajeet Chiba on, Sat, 04/18/2026 - 21:32

Strait of Hormuz Back to Normal Traffic Betting Market Chances Drop From 39 Percent to 24 Percent Chance

The news blurbs coming in from Polymarket tell the story as to why its prediction market for the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal have gone from a 39 percent chance on April 17 all the way down to a 24% chance on April 18 (Saturday).

Submitted by t c jackson on, Sat, 04/18/2026 - 15:06

Latest Iran Conflict Betting Markets as Strait of Hormuz Reopens

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X that the passage for all commercial vessels through the strait “is declared completely open” with U.S. President Donald Trump making his own announcement via Truth Social.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Fri, 04/17/2026 - 09:59

Powerful Florida Attorney Won't Run for Governor But Will Start His Own Political Party: Latest Odds

Billionaire John Morgan is a co-founder of Morgan & Morgan, which primarily handles plaintiff-side cases, meaning they represent people suing for damages. The firm is based out of Orlando, Florida.

Submitted by C Costigan on, Wed, 04/15/2026 - 18:31

Pete Hegseth Impeached by June 30 Won't Happen But You Can Bet on it

Democrats to file articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth on Wednesday

Submitted by t c jackson on, Wed, 04/15/2026 - 12:37

2028 US Presidential Election Winner Odds Have Gavin Newsom Pulling Ahead of JD Vance

The news cycle could hardly be worse for Donald Trump, J.D. Vance and the Republican Party.

Submitted by Press Release on, Tue, 04/14/2026 - 15:51

Latest US Senate Odds as North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio and Nebraska Shift in Democrats Favor

Nebraska has shifted in favor of the Democrats? Well, sort of... And the odds are getting shorter for the Republicans as well.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Tue, 04/14/2026 - 09:47

Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30 Betting Market

38% of those on Polymarket believe that U.S. President Donald Trump will disparage Pope Leo XIV by the end of April.

Submitted by Gilbert Horowitz on, Mon, 04/13/2026 - 22:05

Trump's Nobel Peace Prize Odds Slide to 16-1

Donald Trump's decision to engage in war with Iran has directly impacted his chances to take home the Nobel Peace Prize in December.

Submitted by Press Release on, Mon, 04/13/2026 - 13:18

Viktor Orban Concedes Defeat as Péter Magyar Becomes Next Prime Minister of Hungary: Payout Odds Were Once 2-1

Péter Magyar will become the next prime minister of Hungary after opening at 2-1 odds. His odds coming into Sunday's election were closer to -250.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Sun, 04/12/2026 - 15:45

Strait of Hormuz Betting Markets See Increased Volume as Trump Threatens Full Blockade

Traders were hardly confident that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April with just 14% believing that it will. Close to 50% felt ships would begin to transit through this vital waterway by month's end.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Sun, 04/12/2026 - 10:57

Péter Magyar Next Prime Minister of Hungary Odds as Betting Markets Give Him 85 Percent Chance

Péter Magyar appears well on his way to becoming the next prime minister of Hungary. 85% of those trading at Polymarket had him winning the election with nearly $13 million in trades while Viktor Orbán had seen closer to $14 million in trading volume

Submitted by t c jackson on, Sun, 04/12/2026 - 10:42

Will Eric Swalwell Drop Out of California Gubernatorial Race? Latest Odds

"We’re in really crazy territory" were the headlines blaring Saturday morning as bombshell reports had the frontrunner to win the California gubernatorial race, Eric Swalwell, accused of sexual assault.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Sat, 04/11/2026 - 11:33